STL at MIL

What the Market says

Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.

What the Model sees

What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.

American Family Field · 6:10 PM

PF -6.0%WXClosed

STL+157

38.7% win

(+158)

3.62EXP
RUNS 4.47

o4.5 31%o4.5 42%

Expected total 8.08

7.5 (-110/-110)

Projected

MIL-185

61.3% win

(-158)

No edge MLNo total edge

ERA · FIP · K-BB

Q. Mathews (L)

D. May (R)

3.65B · 4.02 · 11.1%C

4.67C · 3.77C+ · 14.8%B-

BP4.14 1 start

OF95 vs RHP

BP3.38 8.4 IP

OF99 vs LHP

Details ▾

STL

Profile

CON	POW	EYE	BSR	DEF
B	D	D	C+	D

Starter

Quinn Mathews (2-3) · LHP

ERA3.65B

3-year FIPhis underlying quality3.78

K-BB%11.1%C

Last 5 starts

vs WSH7.0 IP · 3 ER · 3 K

vs SF6.2 IP · 1 ER · 8 K

vs SF6.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K

vs LAD5.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 K

vs PIT5.2 IP · 1 ER · 7 K

Bullpen

IP in 48 h8.4

2 days in a row: Brycen Mautz

MIL

Profile

CON	POW	EYE	BSR	DEF
C	D	A	B-	B

Starter

Dustin May (7-9) · RHP

ERA4.67C

3-year FIPhis underlying quality4.11

K-BB%14.8%B-

Last 5 starts

vs PHI2.0 IP · 2 ER · 2 K

vs BAL2.1 IP · 3 ER · 4 K

vs CIN6.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 K

vs CIN3.2 IP · 2 ER · 5 K

vs TEX4.1 IP · 4 ER · 4 K

Bullpen

IP in 48 h8.4

2 consecutive days: none

The analysis