CY Elite Lab

MLB · 2026-09-24

CLE at BOS

Fenway Park

FINAL CLE 1 — 0 BOS

What the market says

Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.

ConsensusBOSCLETotal
Opening-139+1207 (-101)
Before the first pitch-130+1106.5 (-116)
The total dropped 0.5 runs. CLE rose 10 points.

What the Model sees

What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.

Fenway Park ·
PF +6.0%WX -7.0%UMPWolcott -0.9%
CLE
CLE+110
42.7% win
(+134)
3.63EXP
RUNS 4.1
o4.5 31%o4.5 37%
Expected total 7.73
6.5 (-116/-102)
Confirmed
BOS
BOS-130
57.3% win
(-134)
BOS ML +0.8%Over 6.5 +2.6%
ERA · FIP · K-BB
D. Espino (R)
R. Suarez (L)
4.73 · 4.24 · —
3.27B+ · 3.4A- · 15.2%B-
BP3.48 1 start
OF94 vs LHP
BP3.33 6.1 IP
OF99 vs RHP

The analysis

🥉 MODERATE SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐
CLE/BOS u6.5
MLB · CLE vs BOS ·
-102
Published · lineups and starters confirmed
What the market says
It gives it 48.5% net of commission. That's a fair line of +106, and it pays -102.
What we see
BOS is averaging 2.2 runs per game in their last six games, and CLE arrives with a .671 OPS against left-handers facing R. Suarez (3.27, 3.40 FIP). Both bullpens rank among the best of the day (CLE 3.36, BOS 3.22), 8 mph wind blowing in, and an umpire at -0.9%. Slight edge: the 6.5 already captures nearly everything.
What can go wrong
D. Espino has thrown only 1 and 2 innings in his recent outings: CLE needs seven or eight innings from the bullpen with T. Herrin burned out, and in a park with a 106 PF that's a lot of exposure for a total this low.
Why it's still in
Even counting that risk, we give it 52.0%. The market prices it as if it were 48.5%: 3.5 points below what it's worth. At -102 that's an expected value of +3.0%.
Minimum price-103
below this there's no value · expected value +3.0%
It came in.Total runs: 1, with the line at 6.5.
Statistical analysis for informational purposes. Nothing published here guarantees results.
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