CY Elite Lab

Analysis

Today's MLB signals

29
mar · sep
Live now0 of 3 signals
2 gamesno signal
~2 gameswaiting for lineups
No signal yet

The next batch analyzes 2 games around , once lineups are published. Signals come out throughout the day.

At most 2 per batch and 3 per day

Analyzed without edge1▾
CWS/HOU o8-118
· edge +0.7% · its price requires +3.0%
🥇 ELITE SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
CWS/HOU o8
MLB · CWS vs HOU ·
-118
TRACKED · record only
What the Market says
It gives a 51.7% clean of commission. That is a fair line of -107, and it pays -118.
What we see
Two hot offenses against pitching with cracks: HOU 7.7 r/g and .961 ops (17 HR) in the week, CWS 7.2 r/g and .851 ops; 6.5 and 5.9 r/g in the last 10. Blubaugh has a 4.31 FIP and H. Smith 14.5% BB with 2.0 IP in his last outing. HOU's bullpen totals 7.0 IP in 2 days. Modest edge.
What can go wrong
The 7 hot days are just 6 games and can regress to the mean (both teams sit around .730 ops on the season). Add to that H. Smith's 37% K rate, the closed roof, and an umpire that subtracts runs (-1.6%). At exactly 8 runs, the money comes back.
Why it carries no money
We give it a 54.5% and the market is pricing it as if it were 51.7%: just 2.8 puntos. Expected value comes to +0.7%, below what is required. The analysis is published, but with no money.
Rulings out of the day▾
  • PHI/ATL u6.5 (+100): both offenses come cold (PHI 3.2 r/g in the last 10 and 2.7 in the week; ATL 4.0 and 3.3), but ATL doesn't fall below the 4.0 cutoff. Also check 4 fails: J. Luzardo was just activated from the 15-day injured list and his last outing was Sep 7, so he could go on a limit and leave innings to a PHI bullpen with a 4.00 ERA. With the line already at 6.5, the price reflects the L. Luzardo/C. Sale matchup. The reference market is weak (only one source).
  • PHI/ATL ML: ATL -192 and PHI +158 fall outside the band of -162 to +125.
  • PHI Spread +1.5 (-143, fair 56.2%) and ATL Spread -1.5 (+118): no edge. PHI arrives at 2.7 r/g and .627 ops in the week and without L. Arraez (official absence). ATL also doesn't support margin: .611 ops in the week and a 6.5 total pointing to a short game.
  • CWS ML (+102, fair 47.3%): H. Smith's sample is minimal (110 batters, 3.46 FIP versus a 1.29 ERA) and with high BBs. His last outing was 2.0 IP, so the game is decided mainly by the bullpen. No clear discrepancy with the market.
  • CWS/HOU f5_ml_k (The reference market, three sources): with H. Smith probably short, the F5 doesn't isolate the starters. The 16.5% tie in the reference market is lost. No edge on either side.
Early access to plans
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