CWS at KC

Kauffman Stadium

What the market says

Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.

What the Model sees

What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.

Kauffman Stadium · 1:10 PM

PF +4.0%WX -2.8%UMP Tichenor -1.2%

CWS-139

53.1% win

(-113)

5.14EXP
RUNS 4.62

o4.5 50%o4.5 44%

Expected total 9.76

9.0 (+100/-120)

Confirmed

KC+118

46.9% win

(+113)

KC ML +1.0%Over 9 +2.5%

ERA · FIP · K-BB

D. Sandlin (R)

R. Dobnak (R)

6.29F · 4.44 · 13.8%C+

3.08B+ · 4.22C · 7.5%D

BP3.58 12.2 IP

OF99 vs RHP

BP4.82 9.5 IP

OF100 vs RHP

Details ▾

CWS

Profile

CON	POW	EYE	BSR	DEF
D	B+	B+	D	C+

Starter

David Sandlin (2-2) · RHP

ERA6.29F

3-year FIPhis underlying quality4.66

K-BB%13.8%C+

Last 5 starts

vs DET4.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 K

vs STL5.2 IP · 0 ER · 5 K

vs KC6.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K

vs MIN4.0 IP · 8 ER · 4 K

vs MIN6.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 K

Lineup · OPS

1 S. Antonacci LF · L.754

2 K. Teel C · L.626

3 M. Vargas 3B · R.841

4 M. Murakami 1B · L.817

5 A. Benintendi DH · L.713

6 T. Peters CF · L.789

7 C. Meidroth 2B · R.758

8 C. Montgomery SS · L.701

9 B. Montgomery RF · S.655

Bullpen

IP in 48 h12.2

2 consecutive days: none

KC

Profile

CON	POW	EYE	BSR	DEF
B+	C-	C-	B	C-

Starter

Randy Dobnak (3-4) · RHP

ERA3.08B+

3-year FIPhis underlying quality4.16

K-BB%7.5%D

Last 5 starts

vs PIT3.2 IP · 4 ER · 1 K

vs BOS5.2 IP · 3 ER · 4 K

vs TOR6.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 K

vs MIA6.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K

vs TOR6.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K

Lineup · OPS

1 C. Jensen C · L.777

2 B. Witt Jr. SS · R.804

3 V. Pasquantino 1B · L.751

4 S. Perez DH · R.644

5 M. Massey 2B · L.744

6 N. Loftin 3B · R.710

7 J. Rave RF · L.733

8 K. Isbel CF · L.577

9 I. Collins LF · S.649

Bullpen

IP in 48 h9.5

2 consecutive days: none

The analysis

🥇 ELITE SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

CWS/KC o9.0

MLB · CWS vs KC · 1:10 PM

+100

Published 11:00 AM · lineups and starters confirmed

What the market says

It gives it 47.8% net of commission. That's a fair line of +109, and it pays +100.

What we see

Two starters with FIP above 4.20 and a home bullpen of 5.14 (closer L. Erceg at 5.83) with 9.5 innings over two days. CWS arriving at 6.7 runs/game and .761 OPS in the week, KC at 5.2 runs/game; park at 104 runs.

What can go wrong

R. Dobnak is at 3.08 ERA and if he goes six innings the game stays under; plus the wind is blowing in and the umpire reduces runs by 1.2%.

Why it's still in

Even counting that risk, we give it 52.0%. The market prices it as if it were 47.8%: 4.2 points below what it's worth. At +100 that's an expected value of +4.0%.

Minimum price-104

below this there's no value · expected value +4.0%