MLB · 2026-09-24
STL at PIT
PNC Park
FINAL STL 1 — 2 PIT
What the market says
Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.
| Consensus | PIT | STL | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening | -162 | +137 | 7 (-107) |
| Before the first pitch | -162 | +140 | 7 (-108) |
The price barely moved all day.
What the Model sees
What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.
PNC Park ·
PF +2.0%WX -8.8%UMP Barry +1.4%
STL+137
35.2% win
(+184)
3.48EXP
RUNS 4.67
RUNS 4.67
o4.5 29%o4.5 44%
Expected total 8.15
7.0 (-107/-113)
Confirmed
PIT-162
64.8% win
(-184)
PIT ML +3.0%Over 7 +4.4%
ERA · FIP · K-BB
K. Leahy (R)
P. Skenes (R)
3.65B · 3.81B+ · 15.0%B-
3.91C+ · 3.53A · 21.0%A-
BP4.06 4.4 IP
OF95 vs RHP
BP3.59 8.4 IP
OF104 vs RHP
The analysis
🥇 ELITE SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
PIT F5 ML
MLB · STL vs PIT ·
-100
Published · lineups and starters confirmed
What we see
The value is in the first five innings, not in the loaded moneyline: P. Skenes (FIP 3.53, 27.9% K) faces a STL lineup in free fall (.588 ops and 3.2 runs per game over the week). PIT arrives with 4.7 runs per game and .813 ops against a K. Leahy who was coming off 3.0 IP and 6 clean innings.
What can go wrong
In the reference market the first five innings tie (near 18%) is being overlooked, and with a total so low a 0-0 or 1-1 is a real scenario.
Minimum price-108
below this there's no value · expected value +6.0%
Tie.In the first five innings: STL 1 — 1 PIT.
Statistical analysis for informational purposes. Nothing published here guarantees results.
Complete record · The Model · The Market · Plans
Complete record · The Model · The Market · Plans