HOU at ATH

Sutter Health Park

What the market says

Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.

What the Model sees

What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.

Sutter Health Park · 8:40 PM

PF +16.4%WX +0.7%

HOU-174

53.5% win

(-115)

5.52EXP
RUNS 4.92

o4.5 54%o4.5 47%

Expected total 10.44

9.0 (-107/-114)

Projected

ATH+148

46.5% win

(+115)

ATH ML +6.2%Over 9 +7.1%

ERA · FIP · K-BB

H. Brown(R)

J. Lopez(L)

3.26B+ · 3.92B+ · 16.2%B

5.68D · 5.01C- · 9.8%C-

BP3.91 1 start

OF100 vs LHP

BP4.88 1 start

OF100 vs RHP

Details ▾

HOU

Profile

CON	POW	EYE	BSR	DEF
C	B+	C	F	B-

Starter

Hunter Brown(6-3) · RHP

ERA3.26B+

3-year FIPhis underlying quality3.39

K-BB%16.2%B

Last 5 starts

vs ATL5.0 IP · 0 ER · 10 K

vs KC5.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K

vs PHI5.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K

vs CWS6.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K

vs NYM6.2 IP · 1 ER · 10 K

Bullpen

IP in 48 h11.6

2 days in a row: Bryan Abreu

ATH

Profile

CON	POW	EYE	BSR	DEF
C-	C+	C-	C-	F

Starter

Jacob Lopez(6-5) · LHP

ERA5.68D

3-year FIPhis underlying quality4.88

K-BB%9.8%C-

Last 5 starts

vs CLE2.2 IP · 10 ER · 1 K

vs SEA3.2 IP · 5 ER · 3 K

vs TOR6.0 IP · 4 ER · 1 K

vs TEX6.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K

vs BAL5.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K

Bullpen

IP in 48 h7.2

2 days in a row: Elvis Alvarado

The analysis

🥈 STRONG SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐⭐

HOU F5 ML

MLB · HOU vs ATH · 8:40 PM

-108

Published 7:50 PM · lineups and starters confirmed

What we see

The F5 isolates the only clear edge in the game: H. Brown with 28.1% strikeout rate and 3.92 FIP against a J. Lopez at 5.01 FIP who doesn't get past the fourth in his last outings. The ATH bullpen (5.11) is ruled out of the equation.

What can go wrong

HOU bats only .710 OPS against lefties and in the reference market the five-inning tie (nearly 15%) is not returned.

Minimum price-109

below this there's no value · expected value +3.0%