TB at PHI

Citizens Bank Park

What the market says

Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.

What the Model sees

What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.

Citizens Bank Park · 5:40 PM

PF +4.0%WX -5.8%

TB+141

36.4% win

(+175)

3.23EXP
RUNS 4.21

o4.5 26%o4.5 39%

Expected total 7.44

6.5 (-115/-105)

Projected

PHI-167

63.6% win

(-175)

PHI ML +1.1%Over 6.5 +0.3%

ERA · FIP · K-BB

F. Peralta(R)

C. Sánchez(L)

4.56C · 4.33C+ · 13.0%C

2.93A- · 3.08A · 21.3%A-

BP4.0 2 starts

OF96 vs LHP

BP3.82 5.3 IP

OF98 vs RHP

Details ▾

TB

Profile

CON	POW	EYE	BSR	DEF
A	D	C-	B-	A

Starter

Freddy Peralta(9-11) · RHP

ERA4.56C

3-year FIPhis underlying quality4.08

K-BB%13.0%C

Last 5 starts

vs BOS5.2 IP · 1 ER · 6 K

vs HOU5.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 K

vs ATL6.0 IP · 1 ER · 2 K

vs NYM6.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 K

vs DET6.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 K

Bullpen

IP in 48 h6.4

2 days in a row: Brody Hopkins, Steven Matz

PHI

Profile

CON	POW	EYE	BSR	DEF
C+	C	C	B	F

Starter

Cristopher Sánchez(18-6) · LHP

ERA2.93A-

3-year FIPhis underlying quality2.71

K-BB%21.3%A-

Last 5 starts

vs NYM6.1 IP · 2 ER · 6 K

vs WSH6.1 IP · 5 ER · 5 K

vs HOU6.0 IP · 6 ER · 3 K

vs ATL6.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K

vs LAA7.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 K

Bullpen

IP in 48 h5.3

2 consecutive days: none

The analysis

🥈 STRONG SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐⭐

TB/PHI u6.5

MLB · TB vs PHI · 5:40 PM

-105

Published 4:30 PM · lineups and starters confirmed

What the market says

It gives it 48.9% net of commission. That's a fair line of +104, and it pays -105.

What we see

Both offenses are collapsing: TB at .554 OPS and 3.0 runs per game on the week, PHI .611 and 3.5, and over the last 10 TB scores 3.7 and PHI 3.9. Add to that wind of 13.8 mph blowing toward home and an umpire with a -2.6% effect on runs.

What can go wrong

The park is at 104 runs factor and F. Peralta distributes walks (8.5% BB); an inning of three runs with a line of just 6.5 blows it up right away.

Why it's still in

Even counting that risk, we give it 53.0%. The market prices it as if it were 48.9%: 4.1 points below what it's worth. At -105 that's an expected value of +3.5%.

Minimum price-107

below this there's no value · expected value +3.5%