MLB · 2026-10-13
CLE at TB
Tropicana Field
FINAL CLE 1 — 3 TB
What the market says
Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.
| Consensus | CLE | TB | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening | +115 | -135 | 7 (+102) |
| Before the first pitch | +115 | -135 | 7 (+102) |
The price barely moved all day.
What the Model sees
What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.
Tropicana Field ·
PF -6.0%WX Closed
CLE+115
52.7% win
(-111)
4.02EXP
RUNS 3.65
RUNS 3.65
o3.5 52%o3.5 47%
Expected total 7.67
7.0 (+102/-122)
Projected
TB-135
47.3% win
(+111)
CLE ML +6.2%Over 7 +2.1%
ERA · FIP · K-BB
P. Messick (L)
F. Peralta (R)
2.56A · 3.31A- · 19.3%B+
4.42C · 4.31C+ · 12.7%C
BP3.27 5.0 IP
OF98 vs RHP
BP3.51 rested
OF95 vs LHP
The analysis
🥈 STRONG SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐⭐
CLE ML
MLB · CLE vs TB ·
+114
Published · lineups and starters confirmed
What the market says
It gives it 45.1% net of commission. That's a fair line of +122, and it pays +114.
What we see
The Market has CLE as the underdog with a clearly superior starter: P. Messick has FIP 3.31 and K-BB 19.3 versus FIP 4.31 and K-BB 12.7 for F. Peralta. CLE arrives at 5.6 runs/game in their last 10 and .706 OPS against righties. TB drops to .679 against lefties. The bullpens are even (3.13 vs 3.31).
What can go wrong
Messick's last outing was only 3.0 IP: if he goes with a limit, the game is decided with CLE's bullpen that used 5 relievers yesterday, including Cade Smith. In addition, the batting data from the last 7 days is missing, and TB's lineup is stronger at the top than their team average.
Why it's still in
Even counting that risk, we give it 48.5%. The market prices it as if it were 45.1%: 3.4 points below what it's worth. At +114 that is an expected value of +3.8%.
Minimum price+110
below this there's no value · expected value +3.8% · better than the consensus price +118
It didn't come in.
🥉 MODERATE SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐
CLE F5 ML
MLB · CLE vs TB ·
+102
Published · lineups and starters confirmed
What the market says
It gives it 47.1% net of commission. That's a fair line of +112, and it pays +102.
What we see
The F5 isolates the game's biggest edge, Messick against Peralta, and removes CLE's bullpen from yesterday out of the equation. If they're tied after the fifth, it's refunded. The edge is smaller than the ML's and the price is worse (+102 versus +114): it's a secondary and correlated reading with the ML's.
What can go wrong
TB's top of the lineup (Y. Díaz .805, J. Aranda .792, J. Caminero .884, V. Mesa Jr. .825) is exactly the one that faces Messick in the early innings, and this market's margin is 5.06%.
Why it's still in
Even counting that risk, we give it 50.5%. The market prices it as if it were 47.1%: 3.4 points below what it's worth. At +102 that is an expected value of +2.0%.
Minimum price+101
below this there's no value · expected value +2.0%
It didn't come in.In the first five innings: CLE 0 — 3 TB.
Statistical analysis for informational purposes. Nothing published here guarantees results.
Complete record · The Model · The Market · Plans
Complete record · The Model · The Market · Plans