CY Elite Lab

MLB · 2026-10-15

TB at CLE

Progressive Field

FINAL TB 2 — 3 CLE

What the market says

Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.

ConsensusCLETBTotal
Opening-132+1126.5 (-120)
Before the first pitch-126+1106.5 (-118)
The price barely moved all day.

What the Model sees

What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.

Progressive Field ·
PF -2.0%WX -6.6%UMP Miller +0.2%
TB
TB+110
44.8% win
(+123)
3.69EXP
RUNS 3.97
o2.5 64%o3.5 52%
Expected total 7.65
6.5 (-118/-102)
Confirmed
CLE
CLE-126
55.2% win
(-123)
No ML edgeOver 6.5 +1.5%
ERA · FIP · K-BB
G. Jax (R)
G. Williams (R)
3.53B · 3.91A · 17.6%B
3.76B- · 3.64B- · 25.1%A+
BP3.51 2.3 IP
OF104 vs RHP
BP3.27 2.3 IP
OF98 vs RHP

The analysis

🥉 MODERATE SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐
TB ML
MLB · TB vs CLE ·
+110
Published · lineups and starters confirmed
What the market says
It gives it 46.1% net of commission. That's a fair line of +117, and it pays +110.
What we see
Thin edge, at the signal threshold. TB's lineup today averages .760 OPS and the team hits .752 against right-handers; CLE sits at .705 and .706. G. Jax comes in with 0 earned runs over his last 3 starts and TB's bullpen is well rested. Missing batting data from the last 7 days for both teams.
What can go wrong
G. Williams strikes out 33.2% with FIP 3.64, better than G. Jax's 3.91, and CLE scores 5.6 runs/game in their last 10 versus TB's 3.9: if Williams dominates early, TB's lineup edge does not materialize.
Why it's still in
Even counting that risk, we give it 48.5%. The market is priced as if it were 46.1%: 2.4 points below its value. At +110 that has an expected value of +1.9%.
Minimum price+110
below this there's no value · expected value +1.9% · best consensus price +112
It didn't come in.
Statistical analysis for informational purposes. Nothing published here guarantees results.
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