CY Elite Lab

MLB · 2026-10-26

MIL at TB

Tropicana Field

FINAL MIL 10 — 1 TB

What the market says

Where the consensus price opened and where it stood before the first pitch.

ConsensusMILTBTotal
Opening+102-1197 (-113)
Before the first pitch+102-1197 (-113)
The price barely moved all day.

What the Model sees

What the Model calculates for this game: the park, the weather, the umpire, both starting pitchers, the bullpen and expected runs.

Tropicana Field ·
PF -6.0%WX Closed
MIL
MIL+102
51.2% win
(-105)
4.16EXP
RUNS 3.9
o3.5 54%o3.5 51%
Expected total 8.06
7.0 (-113/-107)
Projected
TB
TB-119
48.8% win
(+105)
MIL ML +1.7%Over 7 +2.2%
ERA · FIP · K-BB
R. Gasser (L)
F. Peralta (R)
3.87B- · 4.26C+ · 14.7%B-
4.42C · 4.31C+ · 12.7%C
BP3.36 5.3 IP
OF105 vs RHP
BP3.56 2.7 IP
OF95 vs LHP

The analysis

🥈 STRONG SIGNAL ⭐⭐⭐⭐
MIL F5 ML
MLB · MIL vs TB ·
+115
Published · lineups and starters confirmed
What the market says
It gives it 44.4% net of commission. That's a fair line of +125, and it pays +115.
What we see
The starters are practically identical (FIP 4.26 vs. 4.31; multi-year 4.09 vs. 4.07), but the handedness matchup favors MIL: TB bats .679 OPS against lefties and MIL .759 against righties. The market gives TB 55.6% in the F5 and this reading gives 52%.
What can go wrong
The market and the reference market agree in giving TB a clear edge in the first five innings, and F. Peralta arrives with 1 ER in 16 IP over his last three outings; they may be pricing in something about him that the season numbers don't show.
Why it's still in
Even counting that risk, we give it 48.0%. The market prices it as if it were 44.4%: 3.6 points below what it's worth. At +115 that's an expected value of +3.2%.
Minimum price+112
below this there's no value · expected value +3.2%
It came in.In the first five innings: MIL 10 — 0 TB.
Statistical analysis for informational purposes. Nothing published here guarantees results.
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